Fantasy Football Week 13 Start em, Sit em Projections and Lineup Advice Q&A

Well friends, I am disappointed to say that I dropped another game in the P&G-sponsored Blogger Fantasy Football League*. The loss drops me to 6-6 on the season and two games out of the final playoff spot. I now need to win out and I need help. That is never a good position to be in.

So what went wrong in Week 12? It would be easy to look at the tight end position, where I chose Vernon Davis over Kevin Boss. Davis proceeded to score three points, and I lost by four. Since Kevin Boss had 70+ yards and a TD, the winning production was sitting on the bench at that one spot.

But, just like the Buffalo Bills’ loss in Week 12 cannot be totally blamed on Stevie Johnson dropping that wide open TD pass, there were other positions that could have picked up the slack. Adrian Peterson was running wild before getting hurt and having to leave the game. Vincent Jackson, who I foolishly started in his first game back*, got hurt after two plays. Neither Mike Wallace nor Mike Thomas came anywhere close to the production they’d been getting recently.

* – One of my most trusted fantasy football principles has always been that I don’t start guys who are playing in their first game back after a long layoff. I prefer to wait for them to prove on the field that they are back, even it takes two or three weeks. I like seeing before I believe. Yet, here we are in Week 12, crunch time for all of us, and I recommend Sidney Rice as my WR start ‘em and then go with Vincent Jackson in the most critical week of my season in the Blogger Fantasy League. I failed myself and I failed you. I’m sorry. This is a great example of why having principles and sticking to them is so important. In Week 12, I was a doofus, and I cost us all.

Add it all up, and most of what could go wrong did go wrong, save for Eli, BenJarvus, and Dan Carpenter coming through huge. The real surprise is that I only lost by three points with this confluence of crap that occurred.

And with that, Week 12 is over. Thanks for letting me vent. It is time to turn our attention towards Week 13, and as I did last week, I will enlist your help later this week in setting my Week 13 roster.

Update: Since I am not yet mathematically eliminated from the BFL2010 playoffs, I am seeking your help again in setting my Week 13 roster. P&G gift bags for those who offer up the best responses!

Before we delve into the Week 13 start ‘em, sit ‘em picks, here is a quick note and then a recap of how I did with my Week 12 top-line picks:

• Don’t forget to check out the Text It To The House promotion. It’s the fun, easy weekly game I told you about a couple weeks back. You pick the five players who will have longest plays from scrimmage this week

And now a quick look back at my Week 12 top-line picks:

• Start em hits: Adrian Peterson; Eli Manning
• Start em misses: Cleveland Browns D; Sidney Rice; Ben Watson
• Sit em hits: Terrell Owens; Dustin Keller; New England D
• Sit em misses: Fred Jackson; Michael Vick

Fantasy Football Week 13 Start em, Sit em Projections and Q&A

Note: no teams are on bye in Week 13.

***Remember that Houston and Philadelphia play on Thursday night.***

Remember when reading this post that everything is relative. Just because I say “sit Player X” doesn’t mean I’d sit him in all cases. It just means that, in comparison to the general opinion of that player, who likely is not a consensus must-start (because that is who I try to pick for these columns, so that they are useful), I either like him or dislike him more than others.

If you want specific player-to-player comparisons, I’ll be posting my rankings later in this week, which will give you a more clear indication of how I view one guy versus another. This post is meant to provide general guidance on borderline starters and whether I think, generally, they should be in lineups or not.

Fantasy Football Week 13 Start ‘em QB: Jay Cutler, Chicago (at Detroit)

You know I am predisposed to putting Jay Cutler in the sit ‘em category because I generally do not like him either as a QB or a person (based on what I know of his cocky ass anyway). So when you see that I am putting my faith in Cutler as my start ‘em QB, you know it’s pretty much a slam dunk.

Let’s discuss a few reasons why Cutler warrants this spot in Week 13.

First off, he’s been playing pretty well lately. Week 12 marked the third time in four games that Cutler has tossed multiple TDs. He is also doing an admirable job (based on his own low standards) of protecting the football. This shows that Cutler is getting more comfortable in Mike Martz’s system as the season goes along, and that his O-Line is making some (but just some) progress.

The second, and most important, reason why I like Cutler is his matchup. The Bears play the Lions in Week 12, the same Lions who gave up four TD passes to Tom Brady in Week 12. In addition to the Lions having a very generous secondary, Cutler has proven in the past that he can exploit it. Here are Cutler’s last three games against the Lions:

• Week 1, 2010: 372 yards passing, 2 TDs, 1 INT
• Week 4, 2009: 141 yards passing, 2 TDs, 0 INT
• Week 17, 2009: 276 yards passing, 4 TDs, 0 INT

That’s 8 TDs and just one pick in three games. With the Bears offense playing better and the Lions defense reeling right now, everything adds up to Cutler being a great Week 13 start.

Jay Cutler fantasy football Week 13 projection: 310 yards passing, 3 TDs, 1 INT

Other start ‘em QBs for Week 13:

• Michael Vick faces Houston in Week 13 on Thursday night. Should be ’nuff said.
• Mark Sanchez is at New England and its questionable secondary. Sanchez has thrown 6 TDs over the last three games and New England will give ‘em up.
• Many people thought Eli Manning should be on their bench in Week 12 because of the rash of injuries in the Giants’ WR corps. All Manning did was throw for 200+ yards and 2 TDs. The guy has 23 TDs passes now! Respect earned. He has another solid matchup in Week 13 against Washington.

Fantasy Football Week 13 Sit ‘em QB: Tom Brady, New England (at New York Jets)

Tom Brady has been playing great lately. He has 11 TDs and 0 INTs in his last four games. That is terrific. And he hasn’t just done it against poor defenses. Sure, he feasted on the Browns and Lions, but he also threw multiple TD passes against the Steelers and Colts, both of whom are relatively stingy against the pass.

However, in Week 13 Brady and the Patriots host the New York Jets, and while Brady had a nice day against New York early this season (248 yards, 2 TDs, 2 INTs), that was before the Jets had Darrelle Revis back and healthy.

Here is what Brady did against the Jets last year:

• Week 2: 216 yards, 0 TD, 1 INT
• Week 11: 310 yards, 0 TD, 1 INT

So in Brady’s last three games against the Jets, he’s thrown 3 TDs and 4 INTs. Additionally, the Jets’ pass D is just now rounding into form. After being surprisingly generous early in the season, the Jets have given up just three TD passes over the last three weeks and surely will be primed and ready to attack Brady on Monday Night Football.

Brady’s superior skill and wide range of options make him a decent play even against the Jets, but I think there are at least 8-10 options who are better, and you should see if one of those resides on your bench or the waiver wire if Week 13 is a must-win matchup for you.

Tom Brady fantasy football Week 13 projection: 225 yards, 1 TD, 1 INT

Other sit ‘em QBs for Week 13:

• Jon Kitna threw no TD passes last week against New Orleans after two straight weeks of throwing three. I’m still not a believer, especially against Indy.
• Carson Palmer against New Orleans is a pretty obvious sit.
• Donovan McNabb faces a pretty stingy New York GIants defense, especially when it comes to the pass. He’ll likely be running for his life all day.

Fantasy Football Week 13 Start ‘em RB: Fred Jackson, Buffalo (at Minnesota)

Based on my Never Start Running Backs Facing Pittsburgh rule, I told you to sit Fred Jackson in Week 13. Proving that I walk the walk that I talk, I sat him myself in the leagues in which I own. Naturally, FJax then proceeded to rack up 163 total yards and a TD.

Fred, I get it now. You’re a must start. Every week. You didn’t need to rub it in!

I assume that you, my astute reader, understands that Fred Jackson is knocking on the door of top 10 running back status. Still, I list him here because I fear that people could see his matchup, at Minnesota, and be wary. The Vikings, after all, give up less than 100 yards rushing per game and have allowed just six rushing TDs this year. To that, I say this: Pittsburgh was giving up 63 yards rushing per game and had given up just four rushing TDs coming into Week 12…and we know what FJax did against that imposing unit.

Here is why I really love Fred Jackson, and why he is a must-must start in PPR leagues: he gets involved consistently in passing game. He had five catches (for 100+ yards) in Week 12, and this comes on the heels of him catching three, six, and five passes, respectively, over the previous three weeks.

Jackson has three straight games with at least 125+ yards and a TD. If you’re not comfortable starting him at this point, you are either too stubborn or have some really good RB options. Week 12 proved that, tough matchup or not, Fred Jackson is an every week play.

Fred Jackson fantasy football Week 13 projection: 95 yards rushing, 4 receptions, 50 yards receiving, 1 TD

Other start ‘em RBs for Week 13:

• Jamaal Charles continues to rack up yards (and finally got into the end zone!). I’ll continue to tell you to start him.
• Chris Johnson struggled in Week 12. I don’t care. Unless something comes out about an injury we weren’t aware of, you start him in Week 13 against Jacksonville. He could very well be the #1 overall player this week.
• Matt Forte had a great game against the Lions in Week 1. He should have another good one against them this week.
• Ray Rice faces Pittsburgh in Week 13, which is usually an automatic sit situation. The Steelers are not as quite as imposing nowadays due to injuries along their defensive front. Rice isn’t a slam dunk play, but I’d make sure you have some pretty good alternatives before you sit him.
• BenJarvus Green-Ellis continues to produce. Even against the Jets I say start him. In fact, with the Jets’ secondary likely to frustrate Tom Brady, I think Green-Ellis will be a big part of the gameplan.

Fantasy Football Week 13 Sit ‘em RB: LaDainian Tomlinson, New York Jets (at New England)

Folks, I predicted it a while back and it is coming to fruition: LaDainian Tomlinson is not built for a 16-game season at this stage in his career. While LT still has some value in PPR leagues (he has 21 catches over the last four weeks), he hasn’t scored a TD since Week 6 and hasn’t averaged more than 3.7 yards per rush in a game since Week 5.

As the season moves into December, I expect Shonn Greene to continue to get the majority of the carries for the Jets. LT is in his 30s now and running backs in their 30s simply have a harder time maintaining their explosiveness through a 16-game schedule and as the weather gets colder. He’s already done more than most people expected, so there is no shame in LT’s production dipping. Just make sure you don’t stubbornly keep him in your lineup in Week 13 because of what he did in Weeks 1-6.

LaDainian Tomlinson fantasy football Week 13 projection: 45 yards rushing, 4 receptions, 40 yards, 0 TD

Other sit ‘em RBs for Week 13:

• The Dolphins got Ronnie Brown and Ricky Williams much more involved in Week 12 against Oakland, with Williams even scoring a TD. Let’s hope this is a trend that will continue for the Dolphins, but I’m not quite ready to trust either guy just yet.
• Keiland Williams, what the hell was that? Apparently being named the starter in Washington means you get seven total touches. Damn you Mike Shanahan. Actually, damn me. Damn all of us. It was our fault for trusting you.
• Brandon Jackson just really isn’t a viable fantasy player unless you’re decimated by injuries and simply someone who will get touches. He simply isn’t very productive.

Fantasy Football Week 13 Start ‘em WR: Mario Manningham, New York Giants (v Washington)

I was somewhat hesitant to recommend the seemingly obvious Mario Manningham in Week 12 despite his role as the #1 WR for Eli Manning with Hakeem Nicks and Steve Smith out. I’ve simply been burned too many times by Manningham in the past to totally trust him. Plus, with Jacksonville surely keying on him, I wondered if Manningham was up to the challenge of being the #1 guy.

The end result of Week 12 was not spectacular, but it was good enough for a WR that most people probably had as a #2/#3 guy: 3 receptions, 61 yards, 1 TD. That’ll get the job done, and it’s what we should be able to expect from Manningham as Eli’s top target when going up against a porous Jags defense.

In Week 13, Eli, Mario, and the Giants face an equally inept pass defense when the Washington Redskins come to town. Sure, the ‘Skins held the Vikings passing game in check in Week 12, but who hasn’t been doing that lately? Eli has been appreciably better than Brett Favre this year and is a virtual lock for two TDs each week. Assuming that trend continues, it’s a safe bet that Mario will get one of them. Based on his Week 12 production, start Manningham with confidence.

Additional note: even if Hakeem Nicks or Steve Smith come back in Week 13 (which would surprise me) still start Mario. You might not have noticed, but Manningham had 17 catches for 171 yards and a TD over the three weeks preceding Week 12. That’s not great, but it’s proof that he’s finding a groove even when he’s the #2 or #3 option.

Mario Manningham fantasy football Week 13 projection: 4 receptions, 75 yards, 1 TD

Other start ‘em WRs for Week 13:

• Steve Johnson was a drop machine who cost his team the game by dropping a wide open TD chance in overtime. Still, he caught 7 passes for 68 yards. He stays in your lineup.
• Jay Cutler has a really nice rapport with Earl Bennett, which resulted in two TDs in Week 12. Bennett has been inconsistent, but the matchup against Detroit could be a fruitful one. For that matter, I also like Johnny Knox and Devin Hester in Week 13.
• I know I told you to sit Tom Brady above, but that does not mean I’d sit Wes Welker. He’s been red hot lately and has played well against the Jets the last two times he’s faced them.
• I like Santonio Holmes a lot against New England’s secondary. Even Braylon Edwards isn’t a terrible play against them.

Fantasy Football Week 13 Sit ‘em WR: Randy Moss, Tennessee (v Jacksonville)

That’s it. I’m done. I’ve had it. Even after proclaiming myself done with Randy Moss after his Week 11 no-show, I still ended up softening my stance by Sunday and recommending him to some of you in Week 12. The recommendation was based on solely on Moss’ matchup against the historically bad Houston Texans secondary. Moss ended up catching three passes for 23 yards. Yay.

Now, I’ll give Moss something of a pass because clearly Rusty Smith was not ready to play in an NFL game. Smith’s presence killed the fantasy value of every Titan, including Chris Johnson. Luckily for the Titans, Kerry Collins is expected to be back in the lineup for Week 13, though there are no guarantees yet. If so, that clearly helps out Moss and the other Titans receivers.

Still, Collins or not, here is Moss’ recent production:

• Week 11: 0 catches
• Week 10: 1 catch, 26 yards
• Week 8: 1 catch, 8 yards
• Week 7: 3 catches, 30 yards, 1 TD

So you have to go all the way back to Week 7 to find a game in which Moss had even a semblance of fantasy value. Since then? Bupkus.

I know that the matchup against Jacksonville is inviting, but I’m done trusting Moss. Even if Collins plays, I’m placing the onus on Moss to produce something significant before I’m trusting him with seasons and playoff spots hanging in the balance.

Randy Moss fantasy football Week 13 projection: 3 catches, 45 yards, 0 TDs

Other sit ‘em WRs for Week 13:

• Despite his recent three week stretch of excellent production, I’m not high on Deion Branch this week. With Brandon Tate‘s issues catching the football, I expect Darrelle Revis to cover Branch. That automatically hurts his value.
• We all got really excited about Dez Bryant there for a few weeks. Then he reminded us that he is just a rookie and that rookies, especially rookie WRs, tend to be maddeningly inconsistent. Start him at your own risk from here on out, though the potential for a big week is always there.
• Well, I’ve touted Sidney Rice‘s return for two straight weeks and he’s responded by catching four passes. Woo. Hoo. Rice may yet prove to have fantasy value this season, but the onus is not on him to prove it before we trust him.

Fantasy Football Week 13 Start ‘em TE: Tony Gonzalez, Atlanta (at Tampa Bay)

I’m surprised by how many questions I get about Tony Gonzalez on a weekly basis. I still consider him a bona fide top 10 tight end and weekly start, but many of you seem to not agree. Much of this, I think, comes from Gonzo’s slow start to the season (4 catches, 54 yards, 0 TDs through first two weeks of season) and the fact that coming into Week 12 he only had two games in which he’d caught a TD.

In Week 12, Gonzalez reminded us why he is such a solid option, catching 6 passes for 51 yards and a TD against a very good Green Bay Packers defense. In Week 13, Gonzalez and the Falcons get to face a Tampa Bay Bucs team that gave up a long TD pass to the not-so-fleet-of-foot Todd Heap. I think Gonzalez should be able to take advantage similarly.

Tony Gonzalez fantasy football Week 13 projection: 4 receptions, 70 yards, 1 TD

Other start ‘em TEs for Week 13:

• Greg Olsen caught a TD pass in Week 12. He had a decent outing against Detroit in Week 1 and I like him to have a decent game in Week 13 as well.
• Eli Manning clearly trusts Kevin Boss, going back to him time and again in a close second half after Boss made a bad drop. Boss rewarded him with the game-winning TD. Assuming Nicks and Smith are out again, Boss is a solid option again.

Fantasy Football Week 13 Sit ‘em TE: Kellen Winslow, Tampa Bay (v Atlanta)

K2 has been a solid though unspectacular producer this year. He finally broke through with a TD in Week 10 and there was hope that more would be on the way. Perhaps there will be (the garbage time TD in Week 12 was a start), but Atlanta is not a great matchup. The Falcons are among the stingiest defenses in the NFL when it comes to points allowed to opposing tight ends. That, combined with Winslow’s overall lack of explosiveness this season, makes him a prime candidate to sit.

Kellen Winslow fantasy football Week 13 projection: 3 receptions, 25 yards, 0 TD

Other sit ‘em TEs for Week 13:

• I’m sitting Aaron Hernandez (1 catch in two straight games) until he proves he should be a starter again.
• The Saints are pretty good against opposing tight ends so Jermaine Gresham is another rookie TE I wouldn’t want starting this week.

Fantasy Football Week 13 Start ‘em D/ST: New York Giants (v Washington)

The Giants have been an up and down defense this year, even within games. Week 12 is a great example. Jacksonville ran all over the Giants in the first half, but New York got it together in half #2 and held the Jags in check. With the pass rush that New York can create, they will always be a threat to get sacks and force turnovers, which is what gives a fantasy defense the potential for big days. With Washington’s offense not showing any signs of continuity or explosiveness, the Giants seem like a very safe pick with upside.

New York Giants fantasy football Week 13 projection: 17 or fewer points, 3 sacks, 2 TOs

Other start ‘em defense / special teams units for Week 13:

• Seattle got roasted by the Chiefs in Week 12. Still, they should be able to fare much better against Carolina in Week 13.
• The Miami Dolphins did an excellent job in Week 12 against Oakland. Facing Cleveland in Week 13, and presumably Jake Delhomme, the potential is there for a big fantasy day.

Fantasy Football Week 13 Sit ‘em D/ST: Arizona Cardinals (v St. Louis Rams)

The Cardinals have been a popular fantasy defense at different points this season, mainly because they have a special teams unit that can put up points and offset the big plays allowed by the offense. Coming off a short week, I’m not a big fan of a struggling Cardinals defense that will take on the red hot Rams. Sam Bradford and Co ran and passed all over the Denver in Week 12, proving that they don’t have to be at home to click offensively. I think Arizona’s time as a fantasy-relevant defense has come to an end. If you watched any of the Monday Night game (27 points to the 49ers…really?) you surely agree.

Arizona Cardinals fantasy football Week 13 projection: 24 or more points, 1 sack, 1 TO

Other sit ‘em defense / special teams units for Week 13:

• Oakland has to face Philip Rivers in Week 13. Considering what Chad Henne and the previously woeful Dolphins D did to them in Week 12, I’d say that doesn’t bode well.
• New England‘s D is not one I’d want to mess with this week. The Jets offense has been able to throw the ball well, and that’s New England’s major issue on defense.

The comment section awaits your questions. Fire away!

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* – The P&G Blogger Fantasy League (BFL) is a group of 12 digital sports influencers competing on the NFL.com fantasy platform for the chance to win P&G product, a donation to a local charity, and a trip to Super Bowl XLV, all furnished by P&G. The NFL Entities have not offered or sponsored the sweepstakes in any way.